Red Sox Gamble With Victorino Signing - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Red Sox Gamble With Victorino Signing Stuck

Posted on December 4, 2012 at 09:29 PM.

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(Nashville, Tennessee)--This winter seemed to be destined as the one that would be remembered for overspending. The lack of premium depth on the free agent market along with the increased revenue from a new television deal were the ingredients. No organization can contain itself if there is money to spend. Some teams may cry for a salary cap in baseball, but that is really only a weapon that they could use to stop themselves from overpaying.

Heading into the Winter Meetings, there were a couple of things known about the Boston Red Sox. They had money to spend and more than a couple of holes to fill. They struck early and signed Mike Napoli to a three year, $39 million deal to fill the hole at first base. Then, it got interesting as the Red Sox have been connected to most big name free agents. They finally landed their right fielder for the 2013 season by handing out another three year, $39 million deal to Shane Victorino.

The Red Sox do well in the area of acquiring a name brand player who has performed in playoff environments and a tough, scrutinizing market. It was just as year ago that Victorino was an all-star and receiving MVP votes as the Phillies� centerfielder. But, the Shane Victorino of 2012, the 31 year old version, showed some signs that he is in the beginning phases of a decline.

Victorino split the season between the Phillies and the Dodgers to finish up the year with a .255/.321/.383 with 29 doubles, 7 triples, 11 home runs, 55 RBI, and 39 stolen bases. On the surface, his statistics look sort of in line with his career. But, his on base percentage was 20 points lower than his career average. His slugging percentage dropped 50 points from his career average. Even more troubling is that his walk rate dropped a couple of points and his strikeout rate rose by a couple of points. While minimal, the Red Sox just committed three years to a former center fielder who will now play right field and who is already 32 years old.

Then, there is the most troubling aspect of Victorino�s 2012 season. Against right handed pitching, he hit just .229/.296/.333 in 423 at bats while hitting southpaws at a .323/.388/.518 clip. With the exception of 2011, it is something that has become a trend for Victorino over the past half decade.

The entire point of the great salary purge of last June was to give the Red Sox flexibility and have sort of a reset. They have now used over 30 percent of that savings and have invested it in Napoli and Victorino. Napoli supplies them power and fills that need in the lineup. Investing that money in Victorino rather than perhaps a Nick Swisher or even Josh Hamilton seems to be, to put it mildly, a misallocation of funds. They already have an outfielder who hits southpaws well in Jonny Gomes.

It�s not that Victorino doesn�t give some value. If he doesn�t decline, he gets on base at an acceptable rate, he runs well, and is a switch hitter. He is also an above average defender by most metrics, which does give the Red Sox two excellent defensive outfielders in Victorino and Jacoby Ellsbury. Along with Ellsbury, he gives the Red Sox two high end base stealing threats. And, if Victorino can manage to maintain his production and his splits don�t become too severe, he does give a close facsimile of what Carl Crawford would have given, without the seven year, $100 million commitment.

Victorino becomes the next $13 million per season player. Given the slight decreases and split differences, the odds of Victorino matching his stellar 2011 seem long. But, even if he could just come close to matching that production, the contract is justifiable, at least for 2013. The next two years don�t project as well. The signing just doesn�t seem to fit the Red Sox. They have similar types of hitters in Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia. Their catchers won�t be above average offensively and their shortstop will likely be below average on the offensive end. More of a power hitting corner outfielder who got on base a bit more would�ve been a better fit.

The move seems so odd that it almost feels like a prelude to another one as if perhaps Cherington has a deal lining up involving Jacoby Ellsbury. But, on face value, it looks like the Red Sox overspent by a bit, didn�t address their real offensive need, and are taking a chance on his skillset holding up.

Of course, the deal is just another example of some free spending this winter. Angel Pagan, a similar player, received a four year, $40 million deal. BJ Upton, four years younger than Victorino, got five years and $75.5 million for an average value of $15 million. By those standards, the average value is in line with market value. And, there is a report that the Cleveland Indians actually offered Victorino $41 million. So, perhaps the problem isn�t that they overspent or overcommitted.

Maybe it was just the wrong choice for their current needs.